Sunday, June 24, 2007

Draft 2007: Scenario 2

The Stay-Put:

I have to first confess that Scenario 2:The Stay-Put is currently buried away in a dark corner of my mind while Scenario 1: The Trade Up bobs and weaves at the front of my mind. So before delving into The Stay-Put let's touch up on some things.

I've been hearing stray and totally baseless rumors about Philly trading up, potentially even dangling Andre Miller to get into the top 5. Which raised the throbbing question: would Andre Miller get us into the top 5?!?! That would seem ridiculous, be let's tackle this potential coup before it happens. Question #1: Would the Hawks trade the #3 pick for Andre Miller. Hmmm, I would say no in every language I can say no in for this one(since no is universal that's a LOT of languages), except they DO need a point guard, Miller is under contract for 2 more years, he's big, crafty, and surprisingly resilient offensively, and he would probably do in Atlanta what he did in Philly last year, namely be a smart, stabilizing leader for young guys who need one. He appears to be a good teammate, his handguns are registered, his dogs have tags, and his career, college and pros, has taken him from Utah to Cleveland to Los Angeles to Denver to Philly. Hot, cold, mormons, models, mile high to mad wide, this guy can adapt to any surrounding and do his thing. Still, I'd be shocked if Atlanta, with the option of Horford, Conley Jr., Brewer, Noah, Wright, etc., would pass and instead take a 31 year old dude with decidedly un-sexy highlights and statistics that leave you cold. Would Billy Knight dare?

Which leads us to the other terrible Black GM named Billy, Billy King. Question #2: Would the Sixers trade Andre Miller for the #3 pick in the draft? Straight up, player for pick, I'd have to believe it would be a no-brainer yes. I like Andre Miller a lot. Having watched him over the past few months of last season I saw a rare player, a true point guard who makes his teammates better by getting them the ball in effective spots, by setting a tempo that works best for the team, by scoring when needed and pulling back and getting the hot hand the ball. He's real good. But we have the make that trade. Our immediate future might be a bit murky due to a void at point guard(Louis Williams is still a year or two away from....something good hopefully) but over the long road we'd be set-up nice with Horford or whoever. Now, would I trade the #12 and Andre Miller? I think so but then I'd also want to trade the other two first round picks(#21 and #30) to move up and get another good player in the top 20. Let me end this fun trip to Tradeville by mentioning that this trade will probably not happen. Which is what makes the Draft so damn awesome, because until draft night, none of these ludicrous scenarios haven't NOT happened, and the imagination is left fluttering away in its own barrel of boozy delirium, with visions of the perfect frontcourt, the ultimate sixth man, and a draft for the ages.

So, before I go I should touch on the original premise of this feature, The Stay-Put. Staying at #12 makes sense for several reasons. First, you don't want to give up too much to move up only a few slots when you can stay at 12 and probably get a decent player. Second, and this is an extension of the first point, GM's in this league are morons. Only a few of the 30 GMs in the NBA have any clue who is ever going to be great rather than good, or good instead of awful. Look at the drafts from the past and you'll see bums going early and gems going late. Billy King is a moron 4 days out of the week, so for him to give up players and more picks to move up and take somebody who he thinks is worth it could be a huge risk. Remember, this is the man who's responsible for Philly paying Aaron McKie, Chris Webber, Greg Buckner, and probably even Big Shot next year. My point? If you stay at #12, chances are somebody in front of you will screw up, choke, or hit the bottle on the big night and make a mistake, leaving you with something good. Who's to say that Al Thornton won't be the best player out of this draft in 10 years? Maybe Jeff Green will somehow slip to #12. If the Sixers stay at #12 it's because moving up would cost too much, and also because there are players lower on the board they like. The hot name right(at 12) is Al Thornton, but don't be surprised if they take big white man Spencer Hawes if he's available. And don't be surprised if he's terrible. Trade-up Trade-Up!!

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