Friday, May 18, 2007

Odds Smodds

I have some good news and some bad news. First the bad news:

CHANCES OF WINNING
TEAM REC. PCT.
1. Memphis 22-60 25.0%
2. Boston 24-58 19.9%
3. Milwaukee 28-54 15.6%
4. Atlanta1 30-52 11.9%
5. Seattle 31-51 8.8%
6. Portland 32-50 5.3%
7. Minnesota 32-50 5.3%
8. Charlotte 33-49 1.9%
9. New York2 33-49 1.9%
10. Sacramento 33-49 1.8%
11. Indiana3 35-47 0.8%
12. Philadelphia 35-47 0.7%
13. New Orleans 39-43 0.6%
14. L.A. Clippers 40-42 0.5%
1Pick may be conveyed to Phoenix
2Pick may be conveyed to Chicago
3Pick may be conveyed to Atlanta
Full Draft Order


As you can see, courtesy of nba.com, the odds of the Sixers winning the lottery are actually less than 1%. I consider this bad news because, while understanding the odds weren't great, I gave them at least a 3% chance before seeing this damned chart. It's also bad news because I look at the other teams ahead of us and see two things. First, the majority of the teams with worse records and better odds tanked the season and should be banned from the lottery. Second, if you look closely to the footnotes you will see that both Phoenix and Chicago hold potential Top 5 picks, meaning both those teams will get richer when teams like the Sixers have to bleed and claw to end up with talent they need 100% more desperately. Mostly it's bad news because it almost guarantees the Sixers will NOT win a damn thing. However.....

The good news is that almost everyday you can open the paper and read about how Todd and Mary-Ellen from Wildwood spent their last five bucks on a lottery ticket and won against all odds and immediately quit working at The Sands and are moving to Cape May to live happily ever after. The odds always suck when you play the lottery. You're not supposed to win, you're supposed to lose, over and over, and over and over, until either you wise up and stop playing or keep losing or, like Todd and Mary-Ellen, buck the odds. So, with a 0.7% chance I gotta figure it's Philly's turn to live happily ever after. Tune in this Sunday to the NBA playoffs to see the lottery results.

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